Written by: Stephanie Waldeck and Brady Lang
Stephanie Waldeck and Brady Lang both work on the Dunsmoor Fude brokerage team. As the Client Services Manager, Stephanie specializes in designing and implementing creative marketing solutions for her team. She creates all marketing collateral to promote properties and assists in new business development as well as client-specific plans focused on their objectives and needs. Brady is a Senior Financial Analyst, focusing on helping the team craft tailored strategies for each client based on their underlying financial objectives. He is closely involved with the process of executing the team’s leasing and sales processes and maintains up-to-date financial models to help the team constantly advise clients on how to maximize value. Keep reading for Stephanie and Brady’s mid-year capital markets update for all of Ohio in addition to the Columbus office markets.
Columbus Office Market
Economic Outlook
Commercial real estate lending fell for the first time in two years as total debt on commercial property fell to $5.44 trillion in June. Lending institutions have been put on notice following major bank failures due to the devaluation of bonds caused by rate hikes. Like bonds, real estate values are highly sensitive to rates, consequently, many lenders have put a pause on commercial real estate activities. Those who are still actively lending are much more selective with regard to property type, the borrower’s credit worthiness etc. and are not able to provide as aggressive of terms as they once could. Consequently, sales volume has plummeted nationally resulting in a 57% YoY decline in Q1 2023.
Investment Market and Sales Activity
Columbus’ total office sales volume totaled over $125M at the halfway point of 2023, lagging behind 2022’s pace of $370M. While activity has surely slowed this year, Columbus has remained resilient and has accounted for roughly 60% of the state’s total sales volume. The slowed activity experienced thus far in 2023 will likely persist until an impending “pivot” from the Federal Reserve occurs which many believe could come as early as Q1 next year. Until then, it is clear many market participants, especially lenders, are simply unwilling to play ball.
2023 Second Half Outlook
The second half of 2023 is expected to remain slow from a sales volume standpoint. The Federal Reserve has no plans to change course in the immediate future, in fact, many believe rates will rise another 100 bps through the end of the year. With that said, the amount of quality product on the market for sale today gives reason to believe sales volume levels will inch closer to last years’.
Ohio Office Market
Overview
Ohio has seen a nearly 60% year-over-year decline in sales volume. This significant decline in sales volume is, of course, not exclusive to Ohio. Many metros around the country have seen commercial real estate activity fall off a cliff after the unforeseen turmoil in the regional banking sector resulting in an extremely tight credit market. On top of this, the Federal Reserve has been unrelenting with regard to their hawkish monetary policy with many expecting more rate hikes in near term amounting to as high as 100bps. Thus, activity is not expected to pick up any time soon and property values are expected to continue their decline as the cost of capital rises and lease term diminishes.
Investment Market and Sales Activity
Throughout Ohio, total office sales volume is $171M at the halfway point of 2023. On pace to complete just over $300M in sales volume, this would result in a nearly 60% year-over-year decline in sales volume. While Cincinnati and Cleveland have really struggled, the state’s capitol city, Columbus, posted a respectable $102M in sales volume, accounting for nearly 60% of the state’s activity.
2023 Second Half Outlook
Challenges are more clearly defined as compared to the latest downturn stemming from the pandemic in 2020. Investors in the market face difficulties in securing their financing, while valuations and overall pricing continue to settle. With demand building due to a slow first half, transactional volume will be something to watch for as we move forward.
For more information, check out the full Columbus Capital Markets Mid-Year Report and Ohio Office Capital Markets Mid-Year Report!
Check out the Q2 2023 Trends here!