THE LATEST ECONOMIC TRENDS IN CRE | September 2025

Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

September Economic Update

Using the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, inflation rose steadily from 2.2% in April to 2.6% in July, following earlier declines in 2025¹. These figures reflect Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs. Headline PCE, which includes those components, climbed from 2.6% in April to 2.9% in July². Overall, the data shows inflation picked up from Q2 to Q3 2025, a trend largely attributed to new tariffs. For comparison, PCE stood at 2.5% in July 2024, suggesting relative year-over-year stability. At present, PCE remains close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for sustainable growth.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates from 4.5% to 4.25% for the first time in 2025 on September 16. The Fed also appears poised to continually lower interest rates from the current 4.25% to between 3.25% and 3.50% by January 2026, likely in response to a rising month-to-month unemployment rate³. However, inflation could rise again as rates fall, particularly amid ongoing uncertainty around tariffs.

Our Take

We view these numbers as promising for growth in the Columbus real estate market. Stable inflation and additional rate cuts are encouraging signals for key players. Lower borrowing costs could spur more construction and acquisitions, while providing developers and investors with greater financing flexibility. Industrial and multifamily sectors are especially well positioned to accelerate, though other sectors may also benefit as lending conditions ease.

Still, policy developments on tariffs and rate adjustments warrant close monitoring, as they will shape Columbus’ market environment at a macro level. Overall, Columbus' real estate players remain well situated to capitalize on rising investment activity, particularly in already expanding sectors, as inflation stays contained amid political and market uncertainties.

¹https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm

²https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025

³https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/fed-track-string-rate-cuts-labor-market-weakens-2025-09-05/?utm_