Q4 2025 INDUSTRIAL MARKET UPDATE

Written by: Stephanie Morris

Stephanie specializes in research capabilities, providing support for the Colliers Columbus Office, Industrial and Retail groups. She is responsible for executing data reports, maintaining a commercial property database, reporting quarterly trends, performing data analysis and utilizing statistical information to predict future behavior in the market. Keep reading for her take on market trends in the Columbus industrial sector.

Strong absorption and limited new supply pushed vacancy lower across the Columbus industrial market in 2025. A constrained development pipeline is tightening modern bulk availability heading into 2026.

Market Trends

• The Columbus industrial market rebounded in 2025 with net absorption nearing 11 million square feet for the first time since COVID-era highs. This renewed demand was driven by  third-party logistics users, hyperscale data centers, and solar panel manufacturers.

• Demand continued to outpace new supply, driving a fourth consecutive quarterly decline in vacancy and a 3.41% reduction in modern bulk vacancy over the course of 2025.

• Speculative construction activity was limited in Q4 with only one modern bulk project breaking ground in Licking County. Deliveries totaled the lowest annual volume in the past decade.

• A slowdown in new development has allowed recently delivered speculative product to stabilize. Approximately 88.6% of modern bulk projects delivered between 2022 and 2025 are now occupied or under lease reinforcing durable demand for modern, Class A industrial space.

• Modern bulk deliveries average a 15 month lease-up period, driven up by assets between 400,000–600,000 square feet, which average 19.6 months to stabilize following the influx of supply delivered in 2023. Assets over 600,000 square feet have the shortest average lease-up time of 11.7 months.

• Despite historically longer lease-up timelines, only one first-generation space remains available in the 400,000–600,000 square foot range, signaling a growing shortage of modern bulk options.

• Rent growth has remained resilient with asking rates increasing steadily over the past four years despite the elevated level of speculative development delivered earlier in the cycle.

  
  

Forecast

The region’s modern bulk segment is moving toward a near-term supply gap that could influence occupier behavior over the next 12–18 months. First-generation, true bulk space currently represents just 2.9% of inventory (2.8 MSF) and rises to only 4.2% (4.5 MSF) when including speculative projects under construction. With few new bulk developments expected to break ground until spring 2026 and most anticipated deliveries pushed to late 2026, availability of modern Class A bulk product is likely to remain constrained. Absorption has accelerated while a significant share of active construction is build-to-suit, limiting market-ready options. If demand remains near current levels, tenants will face fewer modern choices and will be required to make decisions earlier in the site-selection process.

Historical patterns show that constrained modern bulk availability redirects tenant demand rather than slowing leasing activity. In 2021 and 2022, modern bulk availability reached cycle lows as demand accelerated faster than new supply could deliver. Leasing volume remained elevated despite limited first-generation options, signaling that occupiers needed to transact ahead of new construction completion. In response, tenants signed new leases in existing bulk and general industrial assets, prioritizing functional space and location over building age. That shift strengthened landlord leverage and clarified demand signals for developers, which ultimately drove a surge in speculative construction that exceeded near-term absorption from mid-2022 through late 2024. As modern bulk availability tightens again, developers are likely to see clearer demand signals ahead of new starts making timing essential to avoid another supply-driven reset.

Absorption & Leasing

In the fourth quarter, net absorption totaled 3.1 million square feet signaling steady occupier demand. The largest move-in was Crane Worldwide Logistics, which occupied 1.2 million square feet at 714 Bosses Way in the Pickaway submarket. The largest move-out was CaaStle, which vacated 120,000 square feet at 5650 Green Pointe Drive N in the Southeast submarket.

Columbus recorded 10.8 million square feet of positive net absorption in 2025, its strongest annual performance since 2021. The market averaged 2.8 million square feet of absorption per quarter during the year. Licking County led the market with 3.8 million square feet of absorption, followed by Pickaway with 2.3 million and the Southeast submarket with 1.5 million. This performance reflects sustained demand across the region’s primary industrial hubs.

Vacancy & Market Rents

The total market vacancy rate in Columbus declined nearly 1% quarter-over-quarter to 6.40% and is now approximately 3.0% lower year-over-year, driven primarily by absorption in modern bulk space. The former Big Lots space at 300-550 Phillipi Rd increases the overall vacancy rate by 1.34%. Vacancy compression was most pronounced in buildings over 600,000 square feet, where vacancy fell 1.55% quarter-over-quarter. The Pickaway submarket recorded the largest decline in vacancy, decreasing 6.48% during Q4 following Crane Worldwide Logistics’ 1.2 million-square-foot occupancy at 714 Bosses Way.

Average asking rents decreased $0.18 quarter-over-quarter to $6.86 per square foot (NNN), largely due to the absorption of higher-priced modern bulk inventory and limited availability of premium space entering the market. Despite near-term softening in older product, rent growth has remained resilient, with average market rents holding above $6.25 per square foot (NNN) for the past four years. Rent levels were generally stable across submarkets, supported by constrained speculative development.

Sales Activity

Investment activity continued to rise in Q4 with total sales volume climbing to $444.7 million and an average price of $104.59 per square foot. The largest transaction of the quarter was Sculptor Capital Management’s $122.0 million acquisition of the Scotts Miracle-Gro facility at 12575 Industrial Parkway from Crawford Hoying, highlighting sustained interest in large, institutional-quality properties.

Single-tenant and credit-backed assets remained a focus for buyers. MDH Partners acquired 9750 Innovation Campus Way (302,880 square feet), which was fully leased by Hims & Hers in 2020. Hims & Hers further reinforced its long-term commitment to the market by leasing 9885 Innovation Campus Way (351,012 square feet) in Q3, expanding its regional footprint. In addition to single-asset acquisitions, portfolio transactions gained momentum in Q4. NorthPoint Development acquired three Columbus-area properties totaling 868,000 square feet for $83 million. 

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Check out the full Q4 2025 Industrial Trends report here!

Q4 2025 Industrial Trends